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Golden cross backtest
Buys when the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day average and sells on the opposite cross.
Passed 4 of 5
- Trades
- 1,102
- 2010-2026
- Win rate
- 34%
- Average trade
- +24.86%
- median −9.98%
- Profit factor
- 3.89
- gains ÷ losses
- Portfolio a year
- +18.6%
- basket +15.2%
- Worst fall
- −45%
- basket −59%
The rules
Buy
The 50-day average crosses above the 200-day average today (it was at or below it yesterday).
Checked on each close for the 100 most traded shares; bought at the next session's open. Average hold: 140 sessions.
Sell
Sold at the next open after the 50-day average closes below the 200-day average, at a 15% stop under the buy price, or after 500 sessions.
How trades ended: stop 45%, exit rule 47%, time limit 7%, stopped trading 1%.
Growth of Rs 100 in a 10-share portfolio
Oct 2026Golden crossRs 1,732Top-100 basketRs 1,072KSE-100 (no dividends)Rs 1,770
Since 2019: +19.9% a year, Sharpe 0.96 (basket +15.1%, Sharpe 0.67). The KSE-100 grew +18.7% a year from 2010 before dividends (worst fall −49%); the strategy and basket lines include dividends.
Pass checks
- ✓At least 300 trades from 2010 on, so the result is not luck of a few trades1102 trades
- ✓2010-2018: average trade after costs above 0 and profit factor 1.2 or more20.93% a trade, profit factor 3.66
- ✓2019-today: average trade after costs above 0 and profit factor 1.2 or more29.37% a trade, profit factor 4.12
- ✗Trades add up to a gain in at least 65% of calendar years10 of 17 years up
- ✓A 10-share portfolio from 2019 on has a better return-for-risk (Sharpe) than simply holding the 100 most traded sharesSharpe 0.96 vs 0.67 for the basket
2010-2018
589 trades, +20.93% a trade, 37% winners, profit factor 3.66
2019-today
513 trades, +29.37% a trade, 30% winners, profit factor 4.12
Year by year
| Year | Trades | Win rate | Avg trade | 10-share portfolio | Top-100 basket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026to 9 Oct | 36 | 3% | −11.36% | −22.2% | −14.6% |
| 2025 | 35 | 20% | −6.01% | +16.1% | +34.0% |
| 2024 | 43 | 47% | +18.23% | +81.7% | +78.8% |
| 2023 | 110 | 52% | +127.30% | +66.8% | +57.6% |
| 2022 | 56 | 21% | +2.76% | −2.8% | −22.2% |
| 2021 | 38 | 16% | −8.59% | +7.2% | −8.4% |
| 2020 | 94 | 47% | +20.87% | +50.7% | +32.8% |
| 2019 | 101 | 6% | −8.80% | −3.2% | +0.1% |
| 2018 | 85 | 22% | −6.04% | +2.1% | −8.6% |
| 2017 | 23 | 22% | −2.97% | −12.4% | −17.6% |
| 2016 | 86 | 52% | +20.31% | +25.0% | +64.8% |
| 2015 | 52 | 23% | +8.61% | +32.4% | +19.0% |
| 2014 | 73 | 48% | +29.24% | +50.1% | +53.3% |
| 2013 | 44 | 57% | +38.62% | +41.7% | +42.1% |
| 2012 | 96 | 49% | +57.69% | +66.4% | +57.5% |
| 2011 | 54 | 28% | +29.80% | −27.2% | −24.0% |
| 2010 | 76 | 20% | −3.48% | +9.0% | −8.7% |
Live since launch
Full track recordNo live trade has closed yet.
Latest backtest trades
| Share | Signal | Bought | Sold | Why sold | Sessions | Return after costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLCF | 21 Aug 2026 | 98.99 24 Aug 2026 | 93.51 14 Sep 2026 | Exit rule | 15 | −6.04% |
| MUGHAL | 20 Aug 2026 | 79.00 21 Aug 2026 | 77.50 31 Aug 2026 | Exit rule | 6 | −2.40% |
| TPLRF1 | 18 Aug 2026 | 9.81 19 Aug 2026 | 8.34 6 Oct 2026 | Stop | 34 | −15.50% |
| SNGP | 13 Aug 2026 | 103.38 17 Aug 2026 | 97.99 8 Sep 2026 | Exit rule | 16 | −5.71% |
| SPEL | 7 Aug 2026 | 48.27 10 Aug 2026 | 41.03 9 Sep 2026 | Stop | 21 | −15.50% |
| BAHL | 7 Aug 2026 | 174.29 10 Aug 2026 | 153.49 14 Sep 2026 | Exit rule | 24 | −12.43% |
| KOHC | 5 Aug 2026 | 101.99 6 Aug 2026 | 90.05 16 Sep 2026 | Exit rule | 28 | −12.21% |
| KOSM | 4 Aug 2026 | 6.14 5 Aug 2026 | 5.22 1 Sep 2026 | Stop | 18 | −15.50% |
| DGKC | 4 Aug 2026 | 220.50 5 Aug 2026 | 187.43 11 Sep 2026 | Stop | 26 | −15.50% |
| TRG | 3 Aug 2026 | 61.00 4 Aug 2026 | 61.00 17 Aug 2026 | Exit rule | 9 | −0.50% |
| DCL | 31 Jul 2026 | 11.24 3 Aug 2026 | 9.55 11 Sep 2026 | Stop | 28 | −15.50% |
| CHCC | 31 Jul 2026 | 316.27 3 Aug 2026 | 268.83 10 Sep 2026 | Stop | 27 | −15.50% |
| NBP | 31 Jul 2026 | 205.99 3 Aug 2026 | 178.99 15 Sep 2026 | Exit rule | 30 | −13.61% |
| GGL | 29 Jul 2026 | 24.44 30 Jul 2026 | 20.77 11 Sep 2026 | Stop | 30 | −15.50% |
| CSAP | 22 Jul 2026 | 103.40 23 Jul 2026 | 87.89 11 Sep 2026 | Stop | 35 | −15.50% |
| GCIL | 20 Jul 2026 | 36.32 21 Jul 2026 | 30.87 24 Sep 2026 | Stop | 46 | −15.50% |
| AGHA | 17 Jul 2026 | 7.85 20 Jul 2026 | 7.44 31 Jul 2026 | Exit rule | 10 | −5.72% |
| PIAHCLA | 17 Jul 2026 | 28.25 20 Jul 2026 | 24.01 9 Sep 2026 | Stop | 36 | −15.50% |
| LUCK | 17 Jul 2026 | 435.61 20 Jul 2026 | 408.41 16 Sep 2026 | Exit rule | 41 | −6.74% |
| AGP | 14 Jul 2026 | 197.63 15 Jul 2026 | 167.99 25 Aug 2026 | Stop | 29 | −15.50% |
Best and worst trades
| Share | Signal | Bought | Sold | Why sold | Sessions | Return after costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAZEW | 21 Jul 2023 | 58.69 24 Jul 2023 | 1,258.13 5 Aug 2025 | Time limit | 501 | +2,043.23% |
| PAKT | 14 Sep 2012 | 35.83 17 Sep 2012 | 508.41 26 Sep 2014 | Time limit | 501 | +1,318.34% |
| GAL | 22 Aug 2023 | 39.17 23 Aug 2023 | 546.46 3 Sep 2025 | Time limit | 501 | +1,294.70% |
| AGL | 8 Aug 2023 | 6.67 9 Aug 2023 | 81.45 21 Aug 2025 | Time limit | 501 | +1,121.39% |
| NBP | 18 Sep 2023 | 16.59 19 Sep 2023 | 171.89 30 Sep 2025 | Time limit | 501 | +935.38% |
| Share | Signal | Bought | Sold | Why sold | Sessions | Return after costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBP | 31 Dec 2010 | 42.34 3 Jan 2011 | 29.39 22 Mar 2011 | Stop | 56 | −31.08% |
| NBP | 12 Mar 2012 | 30.66 13 Mar 2012 | 22.27 21 Mar 2012 | Stop | 7 | −27.86% |
| BNWM | 18 Oct 2011 | 17.68 19 Oct 2011 | 13.02 21 Oct 2011 | Stop | 3 | −26.82% |
| ARPL | 10 Jan 2011 | 79.32 11 Jan 2011 | 58.97 17 Mar 2011 | Stop | 47 | −26.16% |
| GLAXO | 22 Jan 2026 | 412.46 23 Jan 2026 | 319.54 2 Mar 2026 | Stop | 26 | −23.03% |
Prices in the backtest tables are adjusted for later bonus shares, rights and dividends, so they can differ from the prices printed at the time. Past results do not promise future ones. How we tested.