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Monthly momentum backtest
On the first session of each month, buys the 10 strongest shares of the last year (skipping the latest month) and keeps them while they stay in the top 20.
Passed 4 of 5
- Trades
- 527
- 2010-2026
- Win rate
- 47%
- Average trade
- +15.03%
- median −0.96%
- Profit factor
- 2.98
- gains ÷ losses
- Portfolio a year
- +23.4%
- basket +15.2%
- Worst fall
- −59%
- basket −59%
The rules
Buy
First session of the month: top 10 by return from 12 months to 1 month ago, among shares above their 200-day average.
Checked on each close for the 100 most traded shares; bought at the next session's open. Average hold: 96 sessions.
Sell
Checked on the first session of each month: sold at the next open once it is out of the top 20 (or below its 200-day average). No price stop.
How trades ended: exit rule 100%, stopped trading 0%.
Growth of Rs 100 in a 10-share portfolio
Oct 2026Monthly momentumRs 3,382Top-100 basketRs 1,072KSE-100 (no dividends)Rs 1,770
Since 2019: +17.1% a year, Sharpe 0.71 (basket +15.1%, Sharpe 0.67). The KSE-100 grew +18.7% a year from 2010 before dividends (worst fall −49%); the strategy and basket lines include dividends.
Pass checks
- ✓At least 300 trades from 2010 on, so the result is not luck of a few trades527 trades
- ✓2010-2018: average trade after costs above 0 and profit factor 1.2 or more14.98% a trade, profit factor 3.1
- ✓2019-today: average trade after costs above 0 and profit factor 1.2 or more15.1% a trade, profit factor 2.84
- ✗Trades add up to a gain in at least 65% of calendar years10 of 17 years up
- ✓A 10-share portfolio from 2019 on has a better return-for-risk (Sharpe) than simply holding the 100 most traded sharesSharpe 0.71 vs 0.67 for the basket
2010-2018
299 trades, +14.98% a trade, 47% winners, profit factor 3.10
2019-today
228 trades, +15.10% a trade, 47% winners, profit factor 2.84
Year by year
| Year | Trades | Win rate | Avg trade | 10-share portfolio | Top-100 basket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026to 9 Oct | 20 | 25% | −8.08% | −24.4% | −14.6% |
| 2025 | 24 | 33% | −4.95% | +43.6% | +34.0% |
| 2024 | 28 | 68% | +63.31% | +140.2% | +78.8% |
| 2023 | 31 | 68% | +42.11% | +46.4% | +57.6% |
| 2022 | 34 | 50% | +3.39% | −7.0% | −22.2% |
| 2021 | 26 | 27% | −12.69% | −24.4% | −8.4% |
| 2020 | 30 | 63% | +31.88% | +39.4% | +32.8% |
| 2019 | 35 | 29% | −2.74% | −6.3% | +0.1% |
| 2018 | 30 | 30% | −5.84% | +2.8% | −8.6% |
| 2017 | 27 | 30% | −5.21% | −18.4% | −17.6% |
| 2016 | 24 | 71% | +20.26% | +51.5% | +64.8% |
| 2015 | 28 | 54% | +28.19% | +16.8% | +19.0% |
| 2014 | 39 | 62% | +24.79% | +85.5% | +53.3% |
| 2013 | 35 | 46% | +20.25% | +44.3% | +42.1% |
| 2012 | 31 | 65% | +63.18% | +145.0% | +57.5% |
| 2011 | 35 | 29% | −5.78% | −10.2% | −24.0% |
| 2010 | 50 | 44% | +1.74% | +10.3% | −8.7% |
Live since launch
Full track recordNo live trade has closed yet.
Latest backtest trades
| Share | Signal | Bought | Sold | Why sold | Sessions | Return after costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOHTM | 3 Aug 2026 | 122.34 4 Aug 2026 | 91.00 2 Oct 2026 | Exit rule | 42 | −26.12% |
| HASCOL | 1 Jul 2026 | 20.59 2 Jul 2026 | 18.75 2 Oct 2026 | Exit rule | 65 | −9.44% |
| DFSM | 1 Jun 2026 | 17.00 2 Jun 2026 | 15.23 2 Oct 2026 | Exit rule | 85 | −10.91% |
| NBP | 1 Jun 2026 | 189.00 2 Jun 2026 | 184.50 2 Sep 2026 | Exit rule | 63 | −2.88% |
| CSIL | 4 May 2026 | 6.11 5 May 2026 | 5.98 2 Jul 2026 | Exit rule | 38 | −2.63% |
| CRTM | 4 May 2026 | 81.80 5 May 2026 | 69.50 2 Jul 2026 | Exit rule | 38 | −15.54% |
| KOIL | 4 May 2026 | 47.20 5 May 2026 | 44.26 4 Aug 2026 | Exit rule | 61 | −6.73% |
| ZAL | 4 May 2026 | 44.01 5 May 2026 | 46.00 2 Jul 2026 | Exit rule | 38 | +4.02% |
| AKBL | 4 May 2026 | 88.97 5 May 2026 | 103.30 2 Sep 2026 | Exit rule | 80 | +15.61% |
| FABL | 1 Apr 2026 | 78.88 2 Apr 2026 | 87.75 2 Jun 2026 | Exit rule | 40 | +10.74% |
| PTC | 1 Apr 2026 | 48.00 2 Apr 2026 | 59.05 2 Oct 2026 | Exit rule | 124 | +22.52% |
| MDTL | 2 Mar 2026 | 5.10 3 Mar 2026 | 5.85 5 May 2026 | Exit rule | 43 | +14.21% |
| HBL | 2 Mar 2026 | 262.49 3 Mar 2026 | 252.24 2 Apr 2026 | Exit rule | 21 | −4.40% |
| NPL | 2 Mar 2026 | 68.66 3 Mar 2026 | 66.00 2 Sep 2026 | Exit rule | 122 | −4.37% |
| NCPL | 2 Mar 2026 | 62.42 3 Mar 2026 | 56.44 2 Sep 2026 | Exit rule | 122 | −10.08% |
| CSIL | 2 Feb 2026 | 5.52 3 Feb 2026 | 3.81 3 Mar 2026 | Exit rule | 20 | −31.48% |
| QUICE | 2 Feb 2026 | 33.98 3 Feb 2026 | 29.54 2 Sep 2026 | Exit rule | 141 | −13.57% |
| AHCL | 2 Feb 2026 | 18.00 3 Feb 2026 | 13.19 2 Apr 2026 | Exit rule | 40 | −27.22% |
| TATM | 1 Jan 2026 | 172.00 2 Jan 2026 | 103.34 3 Mar 2026 | Exit rule | 42 | −40.42% |
| KTML | 1 Jan 2026 | 64.50 2 Jan 2026 | 50.01 3 Mar 2026 | Exit rule | 42 | −22.97% |
Best and worst trades
| Share | Signal | Bought | Sold | Why sold | Sessions | Return after costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOHC | 2 Jan 2012 | 1.22 3 Jan 2012 | 11.10 4 Jun 2013 | Exit rule | 354 | +809.82% |
| THCCL | 1 Aug 2024 | 9.62 2 Aug 2024 | 67.00 3 Feb 2026 | Exit rule | 378 | +596.33% |
| SAZEW | 1 Dec 2023 | 187.06 4 Dec 2023 | 1,253.37 5 May 2025 | Exit rule | 347 | +569.54% |
| GHNI | 1 Oct 2015 | 62.65 2 Oct 2015 | 344.67 2 Jun 2017 | Exit rule | 418 | +449.61% |
| PAKT | 1 Aug 2013 | 141.93 5 Aug 2013 | 599.84 5 Aug 2014 | Exit rule | 244 | +322.12% |
| Share | Signal | Bought | Sold | Why sold | Sessions | Return after costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACE | 1 Dec 2025 | 24.30 2 Dec 2025 | 9.50 3 Mar 2026 | Exit rule | 64 | −61.41% |
| DEL | 1 Oct 2021 | 29.64 4 Oct 2021 | 13.70 4 Jan 2022 | Exit rule | 66 | −54.28% |
| MERIT | 3 Jun 2019 | 29.11 10 Jun 2019 | 14.17 3 Sep 2019 | Exit rule | 58 | −51.83% |
| HUMNL | 1 Jul 2020 | 11.13 2 Jul 2020 | 5.59 3 Nov 2020 | Exit rule | 86 | −50.28% |
| GGL | 3 Feb 2020 | 11.26 4 Feb 2020 | 5.71 2 Apr 2020 | Exit rule | 41 | −49.79% |
Prices in the backtest tables are adjusted for later bonus shares, rights and dividends, so they can differ from the prices printed at the time. Past results do not promise future ones. How we tested.